2012年，當中西方對「中國模式」的討論如火如荼之際，兩位背景迥異的華人學者——裴敏欣與李世默，展開了一場關於中國未來走向的經典辯論。裴敏欣教授從西方主流政治學視角出發，對中國一黨體制的可持續性提出深刻質疑，預警其面臨的經濟與政治危機。而李世默先生則立足中國的歷史與現實，強調中國模式的韌性、適應性及其在選賢任能、推動發展方面的獨特優勢。十多年後的今天，世界格局與中國的發展軌跡都發生了巨大變化。重溫這場「海外華人 vs. 海歸派」的思想交鋒，對比當年的預測與今日的現實，特別是李世默先生許多觀點似乎正被一一驗證，無疑將為我們理解中國道路的複雜性與特殊性提供極具價值的參考。
In 2012, amid heated global discussions about the “China model,” two Chinese scholars from vastly different backgrounds—Minxin Pei and Eric X. Li—engaged in a classic debate on China’s future trajectory.
Professor Minxin Pei, speaking from the perspective of mainstream Western political science, raised deep concerns about the sustainability of China’s one-party system, warning of looming economic and political crises. In contrast, Mr. Eric Li, drawing on China’s history and contemporary realities, emphasized the resilience and adaptability of the China model, highlighting its unique strengths in meritocratic governance and driving development.
More than a decade later, both the global order and China’s development path have undergone profound changes. Revisiting this intellectual clash—between the overseas Chinese scholar and the returnee elite—not only allows us to compare past predictions with present realities, but also offers valuable insight into the complexity and uniqueness of China’s path, especially as many of Mr. Li’s arguments appear to be increasingly validated by unfolding events.
In 2012, amid heated global discussions about the “China model,” two Chinese scholars from vastly different backgrounds—Minxin Pei and Eric X. Li—engaged in a classic debate on China’s future trajectory.
Professor Minxin Pei, speaking from the perspective of mainstream Western political science, raised deep concerns about the sustainability of China’s one-party system, warning of looming economic and political crises. In contrast, Mr. Eric Li, drawing on China’s history and contemporary realities, emphasized the resilience and adaptability of the China model, highlighting its unique strengths in meritocratic governance and driving development.
More than a decade later, both the global order and China’s development path have undergone profound changes. Revisiting this intellectual clash—between the overseas Chinese scholar and the returnee elite—not only allows us to compare past predictions with present realities, but also offers valuable insight into the complexity and uniqueness of China’s path, especially as many of Mr. Li’s arguments appear to be increasingly validated by unfolding events.
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